Futures Forum Scenario Cards - Menai's Response

Culture: E-book Platforms dominate the book publishing mainstream.
If e-book platforms dominate the book publishing mainstream it will mean major changes for libraries perhaps even their ultimate demise. Obviously there would be a surge in library membership if e-books were freely available without limitations through libraries. However this could cripple the book publishing industry which would miss out on sales. Why would the public buy an e-book if they could sit at home on the internet and download it for free from a library? The only way for the book publishing industry and libraries to co-exist would be to restrict the terms under which libraries lend e-books. This is already the case with Overdrive, concurrent loans are not allowed so everyone can’t access the popular titles instantly, they must wait their turn. Other ways around the problem could include libraries reimbursing publishers per loan or paying a higher price than consumers for titles. These greater costs for libraries may mean that patrons might have to pay a yearly subscription fee to the library to offset the higher costs. However if most books are electronic, staffing and facilities (buildings, shelving etc.) costs may be reduced so costs to councils may not increase. With the glut of information in the future there will probably still be a role for the information professional to highlight, interpret and direct patrons to fulfil their information needs. How many of us they need is yet to be determined.

ECONOMY: we are enjoying a 50-year economic boom
More money would be made available to undertake major changes such as new buildings, large renovation projects and the purchase of new types of collections. Buildings would be improved and design would be exactly what was wanted, rather than compromising due to budgetary restrictions. New furniture, carpets and paint would be a given in each library. There would be an impact on collection management with new types of resources being bought and a continued expansion of digital collections and formats available for download. Possibly we would be able to make various devices such as e-book readers available for loan to a ‘large majority’ of the population. It could be anticipated that due to the economic boom our community may find us less useful if they chose to buy rather than borrow traditional print or downloadable titles. The purpose and promotion of library services would have to evolve so that we could find a new niche from which to serve our community.

Ideas: Society abandons logic & experience in favour of intuition & spirituality
A spiritual and intuitive library would be a library of empowerment and inspiration. It would be aesthetic and exude a relaxed and soothing ambience. Space would be available for spiritual practices such as prayer, meditation and contemplation. Personal development and metaphysical classes would be offered under the guidance of spiritual teachers such as Eckhardt Tolle, Carolyn Myss and Deepak Chopra. Collections would be developed based on instinct – the spiritual and esoteric collection would be vast compared to the maths and science collection. Previous borrowing patterns would be ignored as would surveys and statistics. Trends would be intuitively gauged and items purchased that way. People would function at a higher level of awareness and show more respect for each other and library property. Items would be returned on time and in good condition. Conflict resolution, late fees and legal letters would be relegated to the past. It would be a great pleasure to be on the staff of this library!

NATURE: the world is green
We would assume that there is sustainable living in most countries with recycling a top priority. Fossil fuels are no longer in use and have been replaced by various types of natural/renewable energy sources. These sources power the library buildings and computers etc. If the library wholly embraced technology we would see a big reduction in print materials, possibly only keeping rare and collectible print items. Collections would be primarily digital/downloadable and remotely accessible 24/7. We would buy multiple copies of the same e-title, or buy copies which allow simultaneous customer use. As digital titles need some type of device to play on libraries may find they are having to make e-book readers etc available to borrow. If ‘the world is green’ is more of a ‘back to basics’ scenario then the effect would be different. Libraries would be focused on purchasing resources that are made from sustainable forest materials. This could include buildings, furniture and collections. If these items suffer more wear and tear there will be financial implications with items needing to be replaced more regularly. This may lead to various collections not growing as rapidly as they do now.

Politics: WW3 breaks out
Predicting the impact of world war 3 on libraries depends on what we think constitutes “World War 3”. Is it the number of countries engaging (or being engaged) in hostilities? Is it the number of people being killed or maimed? Is it the type of weapons being used (machetes, H-bombs, torture etc)? Is it the duration of the event (1 week, 5 years, 10 years etc)? Do all countries have to be fighting? For instance the past world wars were not given the titles “World War?” till well after those wars ceased. We may already be experiencing WW3 – or at least its beginning!? It’s possible that the civilian inhabitants of Afghanistan or Iraq would (understandably) feel this way? For the sake of the exercise we will assume a “traditional” conception of WW3 (e.g. the U.S. and her allies in a nuclear exchange with Russia or China). This impacts libraries in many ways. If Sydney is devastated by a few bombs then the libraries that survive will become, amongst other things, triage units; housing and treating radiation and blast affected people. Other changes to the libraries function and responsibilities will occur. For instance lower levels and underground car parks would become bunkers or shelters from any riots or looting in the streets. Shelves of books would have to be disassembled to make room for emergency accommodation and relief efforts. Libraries, more than ever, will be ideally placed to service the community in its time of need.

Society: 24x7x365 connectivity kills off privacy and the barrier between work and leisure.
This future scenario is very close to being a reality. With the rapid and widespread adoption of mobile phones, personal organisers and social networking technologies many of us are already connected 24 hours, 7 days a week and 365 days a year. And it does have the potential to kill off privacy and the barrier between work and leisure. Libraries are encouraging their staff to be active on social networking sites and so have a vested interest in how staff present themselves and the things they publish. It is a very tricky thing to negotiate as written words can be misinterpreted in a way that a face to face conversation can’t. Even those employees using the sites for their own personal interactions not to promote their work can be vetted for appropriate behaviour by current or future employers. Also given the spiderweb like connection of networking sites library patrons may be aware of what you are posting and could potentially try to befriend staff, complain about things you had posted or send through a work query to your personal account. Patrons will have greater expectations because of these technologies perhaps even wanting an immediate response around the clock. Will staff have to be on a 24 hour roster? The ease of getting hold of staff via mobile phone and personal organiser technology too encourages contact during times when they are not at their place of work. The barrier between work and leisure is blurred and staff can feel as if they are permanently on call. Obviously policies have to be put in place to clarify the situation for employees and employers. But I believe those people engaging in social networks need to be very wary of what they say because you are publicly publishing your thoughts and you will be held to account.

Technology: Tiny Tim Inc. becomes the world’s largest corporation (nanotechnology)
Nanotechnology is the science of building at a sub-atomic level. Mechanics, circuitry, nanophotonics and NEMS (Nano Electro Mechanical Systems) are all included. Instead of the 6 top 10 world corporations being oil and gas nanotechnology corporations will fill these slots. Tiny Tim Inc, involved in the early production of Bluetooth technology is at the top. When nanotechnology allowed power to be produced from a single chip libraries and library patrons were able to downsize all technological devices. This included self-check units, computers, photocopiers and security systems. Nanotechnology and its products are less costly and have the potential of being better for the environment than traditional processes. Instead of CDs, Playaways and novels patrons will be borrowing small chips with music, movies and novels on them. The possibilities are endless, for example imagine seeing something you like in the library and transporting it digitally to your house through the IPAC. Libraries do not accept cash, with all monies owing being paid by smart cards.