Wild Cards - Interpretations from Sylvania
Wild Cards - Sylvania's responseCulture: Emergence of a truly post-literate society
Technology has advanced to the point where the ability to read and write is no longer necessary. The term "post-literate" appeared as early as 1962 in Marshall McLuhan's The Gutenberg Galaxy. The written word is replaced by CDs audiobooks, radio, pictures (JPEG) and television, film, video games, virtual reality, and so forth. Reading/writing are needed only to facilitate manipulation of the other media. By 2030, society is "post-industrial" where there is no longer a manufacturing-based economy, but a structure based on the provision of information, innovation, finance and services. The library is ideally suited to this. The librarian is the knowledge navigator. Library 2.1 has shown the direction. We must make sure however that we don't drown in a sea of information, overload, multi-tasking, too much to see and do, connectivity addiction, increasing hyperconnectedness. The Library must remain the leveller, the civilising influence and community builder.
Society: The cost of ageing promotes the return of the extended financial family
The extended financial family (EFF) is a group of family members living in the same home for financial reasons. This phenomenon has become familiar because of inadequate pensions, rising debt and the high cost of property in the developed world. Added to this are high childcare costs, student debt for young adults, increased life expectancy, and high cost of residential care. The nuclear family which resulted from industrialisation is supplanted by linear groups (grandparents/grandchildren), collateral groups (aunts/uncles, etc) or affinial groups (linked by marriage). Such family groups can provide support during illness, sharing of chores, sharing of finances, utilities, space, and childcare, among other things, and it works well in other cultures.
Libraries already cater to a certain extent for all these age groups. The library environment is seen simply as a safe and peaceful haven from all the family clamour; a quiet escape for study or browsing; more children's progammes need to be scheduled; author talks and specialist talks on, say, health of the elderly, or child-rearing are regular events. Even knitting/craft groups now offer an escape. Most importantly, library resources such as books and DVDs must reflect the need for re-education; on how to adapt to changed living styles, more complex financial planning due to reduced overall finances, and so forth. The public library has become a library hybrid, sharing space with community centres.
Library is an Urban Hangout? Info Hub? Oasis? (three descriptions from the State Library media release 23/04/2010).
Politics: Boundaries between nation states disappear as globalisation becomes truly global
Benefits are not evenly distributed, though globalisation boosts economies in general, advances technologies by cooperation, and improves daily lives. The best ideas are spreading over the world, which has become a large interactive village. The individual power of a country is reduced, and we share resources. There is interdependence and integration. More libraries have benefactors and need to network with libraries in other countries. We already have the technology in place. At the same time public libraries stand for structures that support and consolidate local communities. Libraries work in tandem with other agencies, to assist integration of migrants, by providing current community information.
On the downside, would it be a case of user pays, as money is siphoned off for infrastructure, roads, railways?
Nature: The Arctic becomes ice-free during summer months
As predicted since 2000, this has now happened, as greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. By 2040 only a small amount of sea ice remains along the north coast of Greenland and Canada. Polar bears who rely on ice as a hunting platform need to seek food elsewhere. New shipping lanes are opened up throught the Arctic region, especially by China, which had been preparing for a long time for a piece of the action, in the race to exploit newly exposed resources. The cost of travelling the old route to Europe via Suez has increased tenfold because of high insurance premiums generated by piracy. Shipping routes from Shanghai to Hamburg are reduced by 6400 kms during summer. Across the Arctic is China's gateway to Europe. National boundaries are altered; there are new geo-physical disputes.
With such an important and far-reaching change in global weather, populations world-wide need up-to-date information on all aspects of climate change, and expect libraries to offer this, over and above newspaper articles. Because of the serious long-term implications of the vanishing ice-cap, people are more environmentally conscious and want information. The library hosts regular discussion sessions and visiting guest speakers. Extreme events bring disease and stress as well as deaths from heat. In 2003 there were 35,000 deaths across Europe caused directly by unprecedented heat, as people were not prepared, and buildings inadequate. Again libraries are in the forefront of the education process.
Technology: Robot wars break out in the Middle East
The Middle East has oil, other nations have an abundance of water - will these issues cause conflict? There is a current feeling that any hostilities in the Middle East are to be fought robotically. Already, robots are used to dismantle landmines and roadside bombs, but a newly developing generation are designed to be fighting machines. One bot, known as swords, can operate an M-16 rifle and a rocket launcher. Some robots are as big as a motorcycle, some can fit on a person's little finger, all can be operated remotely and be used to patrol land borders and oil wells.
Robots have no compassion, take no prisoners.There is a new type of battlefield, an unprecedented view of the battlefield aided by robotic drones and sensors. Massive food supplies are not required and commanders conduct warfare in relative safety.
How does this affect libraries? Libraries are affected in two ways.....firstly there are the newsbods who enjoy up-to-date action on the screen and secondly there is another group of people who seek sanctuary in the library to "get away from it all".
Joker: Flu pandemic kills 500 million worldwide
Influenza is an infection caused by a non-living organism that can only survive by entering the body of another living organism. It is more lethal in the young and the elderly. Annual influenza epidemics are challenges - some worse than others, no matter how well prepared we are there is always death. Unpredictable factors largely determine the outcome. We are still using the 1950s egg-based technology as a basis for vaccine. Urgent needs include basic research on the ecology and biology of influenza viruses, risk assessments, development of cell culture technology for a vaccine to replace the egg-based process. To produce 300 million doses of vaccine more than 350 million chicken eggs are required and the time-frame is six months, including isolating the new strain. As the world has a dense and mobile population a flu epidemic has engulfed the world in six months. People are contagious for 24 hours before symptoms appear. For some time, many airports around the world have had a scanning gate which picks up above-normal temperatures and fevers. Healthcare systems have done little planning. There is no way of urgently increasing the production of ventilators, masks, antibiotics. Library staff are particularly vulnerable, and need to be vaccinated early, wear masks, scrub hands regularly and discard handtowels into enclosed bins. Libraries become a hub for people without access to Internet and mobile phones, as hospitals and health departments find it necessary to keep the public up-to-date via Twitter, Facebook, mobile alerts instantly.
Ideas: Last landline service is abandoned
Communications experts show the landline telephone is dead; use is plummeting as demand for mobile technology booms. Current statistics in 2010 revealed 90% of the 60-69 year age group have a landline and 74% of 18-24 year olds own a mobile phone. However, more than 50% of the 60-69 age group also own a mobile phone. Primary and high school children are also buying mobiles at extraordinary rates. As a result, these generations have no use for a landline because new wireless services are more sophisticated. Landlines do not drop out and the battery does not have to be recharged regularly. The qualities of a mobile are far more beneficial - they are portable throughout the world, text messaging is instant, they consume less energy, in a share house each person is responsible for their own bill, parents can keep in instant contact with children. Landlines have been abandoned as the humble "blower" has not kept up with technology, with handsets not having the features of mobiles. As the last landline service is abandoned regulations are enforced to ensure no-one is worse off, there are many economical deals available. Libraries have point-of-sale kiosks and conduct "how to use your mobile" classes subsidised by telephone companies. Predictably, the younger generations do not need these classes.
Economy: Tigers toothless as Asian economies collapse
The Asian financial collapse is a truly extraordinary event, its origins being exchange rate depreciation, decline in stock prices or an oil crisis. The domino effect has created panic and it has become evident that globalisation has a downside. The economies of Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia are the "toothless tigers", with China holding its own, as it plays a significant role in the world economy. China's economic growth and trade liberalisation facilitates domestic changes in agriculture because of the transfer of farm workers to better-paying city and manufacturing jobs. China imports large amounts of timber, exporting it as furniture. The vast amount of imported energy and mineral products continue to boost China's economy, but send other Asian developing economies into decline. Asian nations cannot ignore the "rising dragon" and allow themselves to be "toothless tigers", they must rethink restructuring and education and not rely on the tourist dollar. Developed world governments are expected to send more aid to these poorer nations, resulting in a financial downturn in government assistance. Libraries do not receive increased funding, but are expected to finance ESL classes, financial advice, community aid, employment and resume assistance.
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1 comment :
Great response Sylvania. You've really thought it through. Some of those scenarios sound a bit scary.
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