Futures Forum Scenario Cards - Miranda Response
Culture: Average length of novels reduced by 50% due to declining attention spansThere is an increased demand for other types of leisure reading such as magazines, graphic novels and short stories. There would also be greater diversification in the formats we provide and the ways in which we make our collections available. This is the only way to ensure that we continue to provide what is wanted and needed. For example, the interactive 3D magazines that Max referred to in a recent blog post about the iPad. We would probably need to run information sessions or QR codes that link to a virtual orientation of these collections and how you can use them. We may also be organising guest speakers to conduct lectures for parents struggling with their child’s reduced attention span. The library caters to community needs and we should anticipate and respond to these needs. If they want items in different formats we need to be making them available.
Economy: A no credit world: cash is king
The end of civilization as we know it! In terms of libraries building their collections and paying for services there would be radical changes needed. It would be fair enough to assume that in this scenario there would be no such things as standing orders and something as simple as paying database subscription fees would create massive headaches. This whole area of acquisitions would become very labour intensive, which would have a domino effect on other areas. The majority of people are billed for their internet usage after the fact. This would no longer be possible and may well impact on the use of Overdrive and other digital collections we are considering providing. The take-up of technologies may slow down as consumers become increasingly unable to acquire the latest smart phone or iPad because nothing can be bought on credit. This would likely cause a re-think of the direction of libraries and a questioning of plans to move more firmly towards provision of digital resources. Corporate credit cards would need to become debit cards - from a branch perspective this would have no effect
Ideas: Enoughism emerges as a major political force
‘Enoughism’ coined by John Naish refers to the growing trend to turn your back on ‘both the greedy consumption and workaholic acquisition of wealth’. Save don’t spend, borrow don’t buy, stay in instead of going out. And so on. But the really interesting thing noted by John Huxley in the SMH is:
No to more information, especially digital information. "People have discovered belatedly that they have too much information, too much choice. Now, instead of enriching their lives, keeping them informed, it is stressing them out. Increasingly, they're 'unsubscribing' to internet services, magazines, newspapers," ………. They want less entertainment, more quality, thoughtful information.
(http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/and-now-for-the-good-news/2009/02/06/1233423495139.html)
We are well positioned to capitalise on such a trend: mostly we don’t charge and obviously we offer ‘borrow don’t buy’ in terms of print and downloadable information. We also have the expertise to sift the wheat from the chaff and locate the information people really want. So if society completely embraced ‘enoughism’ we are available as we always have been. But if society were to embrace it purely in terms of digital information overload we need to find a way to tell customers we can help them with this.
Joker: Parents choose genetic traits for their children
Wanting the ‘best’ for their families and their children the scenario probably results in children who are: intellectually gifted, excel at sports, healthy, musically inclined, voracious readers, self confident and well behaved. And anything else you care to imagine. The impact on libraries would be huge. These technologically savvy kids would expect and demand the best, from instantly downloadable information for their projects to access to a huge range of leisure reading resources and formats. They would not be in the least bit disruptive but their self confidence would ensure that they would stand their ground if they thought that any aspect of the library service could be improved. We would need to look at a wider range of services from storytimes for gifted children to the provision of advanced services for students. The library may need to buy more books on genetic engineering. Could lead to a greater division in society where the rich use the service while the poor can’t afford to. Children could grow up quicker and this could have effects on junior non-fiction collection management.
Nature: Oil is now $300 a barrel
This is interesting because it could have a catch 22 effect. Customers would want more remote access to collections so that they could reduce their travel to and from a library. At the same time the costs of living would sky rocket as goods and services become more costly to deliver. Resulting in consumers having less ready money for non essential items such as new technologies. Consumers would then have less reason to use these remote access collections. Possibly in this scenario libraries would need to get out and about more in a 21st century version of a book mobile. From such a mobile library we would lend e-book readers, iPads and any other device needed to make use of our collections. And of course traditional library users would still need to borrow print titles, because with oil at $300 a barrel it’s hardly the time to start buying books. The budget probably wouldn’t go far as everything is more expensive (flow on effects). We could see a bigger divide in society with the not so rich using the library more often.
Society: Big Brother comes true. Governments monitor every individual via electronic surveillance.
This would create huge privacy issues. Confidentiality of names and addresses could not be guaranteed and the government could routinely track the loan records of customers. Customers may not feel safe accessing very personal information, print or digital, which could seriously hamper their decision making efforts and have a negative impact on their life. We could find many more users not borrowing items; rather they may be secreted away in corners surreptitiously looking for what they need. If the government was monitoring each individual it is not much of a stretch to think that they may also be exerting control over the types of information that we have access to. This would impact on collection management and purchases, both print and digital. The library’s systems may need to be re-designed to hold more information on what people have previously borrowed. Item information would need to have its history expanded to show the names of many previous borrowers.
Technology: Neo-luddites gain control
Adapted from wisegeek.com:
‘A person who believes the use of technology has serious ramifications. They aren’t necessarily opposed to it but they want serious debate of the role of technology in society. Rather than assuming technology is neutral or beneficial they consider its possible impact. For example, medical advances allow people to live much longer, but these lives are not always happy or pain free. And some cities use extensive surveillance to keep an eye on people, but many feel this is a breach of privacy.’
Libraries would change direction and return their focus to print resources. Technologies we take for granted would no longer be available. Remote access to databases, downloadable audio and e-books etc would disappear. It would be increasingly difficult to ‘sell’ libraries to customers not interested in traditional library resources. Our effectiveness would be seriously hampered as web resources and access to them dries up. Information would become harder to identify, provide and locate. If a newly elected Council was made up of neo-luddites they may prevent us from spending more money on technologies and reduce the number of PCs that we make available. This would be problematic as we need to cater to people seeking both traditional and non-traditional resources.
Politics: The voting age is reduced to 14
First of all we would have to lower the age that a teenager can join the library without their parent being involved. We can hardly say that they are legally required to help vote a government in, but that they are not old enough to join the library by themselves. If they have a political voice then they have the ability to lobby parliament to effect the direction of libraries and the types of things that we make available. So we could be looking at libraries in the future with much larger dedicated youth areas that are meeting places for online gaming, ‘facebooking’ and other social networking. Oh, and probably study. More computers available and no charge involved. If there is control exerted over school life then we could see more students leaving school at an earlier age and using library services as a place to connect to employment opportunities. It is also foreseeable that units of school work could become remotely deliverable and this could result in an increased demand on our resources and services. It’s hard to say what effect this will have as we already treat everyone equally – children and adults. It may mean that the library will need to purchase more YA resources
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1 comment :
Some of these scenarios sound a little freaky (genetically engineered babies, big brother) and I hope they don't come true but it's interesting to see how they might effect Libraries.
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